CA Dreamin'

Yes, California has nearly 2.5M votes left to count, almost all of them vote-by-mail. (County elections departments there should contact Multnomah County to learn how to do this right.) If you compare the county-by-county outstanding ballots to the current results, you’ll come to this conclusion: Clinton still wins the state, and handily.

Here’s a comparison of the counties with the most outstanding ballots to count:

county outstanding HRC margin
Alameda 151,853 +8
Contra Costa 75,000 +17
Fresno 38,000 +19
Kern 53,856 +17
Los Angeles 556,319 +16
Orange 206,285 +10
Riverside 128,415 +20
Sacramento 107,291 +16
San Bernardino 56,049 +14
San Diego 285,000 +8
San Francisco 54,000 +11
San Joaquin 49,608 +21
San Mateo 62,687 +23
Santa Barbara 20,947 -0.2
Santa Clara 87,900 +20
Santa Cruz 37,500 -11
Sonoma 43,324 +2
Stanislaus 39,400 +8
Ventura 38,696 +7

Every one of these counties but two, she won; most by dominant margins. These are not numbers that lend themselves to a half-million vote swing. Sanders would have to win the oustanding ballots by a million, or 70% of the remaining votes. And that’s just to tie.

The current numbers, taken in conjunction with pre-primary polling and exit polls, tells us it ain’t gonna happen.

This is not the kind of outcome that will cause Sen Jeff Merkley to return to the fold, cause a panic of super-delegates, or persuade committed delegates to renege their commitment to the voters. Sanders is not going to win California on these outstanding ballots. He knows it, which is why he’s entering end-of-campaign mode.

Check the data yourself

Statewide returns, county-by-county
Outstanding ballots, county-by-county...

questions, no answers

Ten years ago, no one was paying attention to lead in drinking fountains. When the fountains at Corvallis High School were turned off due to safety concerns, the implications of that slid by. After all, Corvallis voters had approved the construction of a new high school, so the kids were getting out of that building anyway.

But now, ten years down the road, those of us with kids who went to the old CHS – and I had two – have no idea what our kids were exposed to. We can also wonder about the old Highland Middle School, demolished and replaced by Linus Pauling MS. Or all the other schools in Corvallis, most of which needed extensive fixing.

What happened to our kids during those years at those schools? I don't even know if the water got tested back then. I see what's going on in Portland, and I see testing (albeit late), accountability (way too late), and I see that parents at least have some knowledge of what their kids might have been exposed to.

All I have, and the thousands of Corvallis parents in the years before these recent upgrades, are questions. And the hope that my kids were not poisoned by their school drinking fountains. But I do not know.

Money: a review of the Portland mayoral race

Oregon’s primary election is in the rear view mirror, so let’s look at the role money played in the Portland mayoral campaign. Or, in some cases, the role a lack of money played.

Bailey: The high road?

Jules Bailey made a pledge at the beginning of his campaign to cap contributions at $250 and to take no PAC money. Of course, he was counting on support from groups like OLCV and the police union to give time and energy that he would not have to count as money. Bailey may have felt this was an ethical stand, but it didn’t do his campaign any good, especially considering he started several months after Ted Wheeler, who put no such limit on his contributions.

The question arises, given that he raised $160,000 (and ended $15,000 in the red) compared to Wheeler’s $634,000 (and that was just this year): was this a mistake? Did he regret the choice? No doubt Wheeler’s huge advantage in cash made Bailey’s task much more difficult, undermining all the things necessary to win an election.

Did he regret the choice? I don’t know, but here’s what he Tweeted when Chloe Eudaly asked Steve Novick to limit contributions in their City Council run-off:

Wheeler: Overwhelming advantage

Ted Wheeler was not shy about fundraising, and his campaign kicked major ass: $633,646 – in 2016 alone. In 2015, he raised over $324,000. That’s almost $1 million for this campaign. And it worked. He blew away all competition, winning handily (not easily, however: he, his team, and his volunteers worked like hell). He was able to buy all...

Ageism and Portland hipster progressivism

Being a woman in politics is a tough gig. No matter what side of the political divide, what office you’re seeking, what your background, you’re going to get hammered in ways men never have to worry about (cf: Hillary Clinton). Sexism in politics is rampant, disgusting, and destructive.

So is ageism. And we’re seeing that in play in the 2016 Portland mayoral primary.

The leading woman candidate is Sarah Iannarone. Her bio is a strong one: single-mom, started her own business, a leader in a program at PSU that allows her a wide range of international contacts, relentless volunteer, full-time bicyclist. This is a background that makes for a good politician, especially in Portland. Varied, full of struggle, full of opportunities taken.

As a result, even though few Portland voters know of her and she has no chance of becoming Portland’s next mayor, she’s earned a lot of respect and support. She says a lot of things progressive leaders need to say, and she says them with the conviction and detail that lets you know this comes from a strong combination of heart and brains. Many progressive activists in Portland are supporting her, especially younger ones and those with a dislike for the political establishment (and rich white men).

Fortunately for Iannarone, she’s young enough and not-rich enough that these younger activists are willing to give her a fair chance. Four years ago, the same people had a woman candidate with an even stronger background but never gave her the fair chance they are giving Iannarone.

I’m talking about Eileen Brady, of course. I worked on her campaign and got to know her quite well. She and her family made me a friend, and I learned what wonderful people they are. I...

An old white guy talks about Béyonce

Not gonna happen. Not here. I may be an old white guy, but I’m not a stupid old white guy.

I’m also not a black woman in 21st Century USA. I’m not any kind of black person, much less a female one. The life experiences of Béyonce – the life experiences of black women and women in general – are not something I have shared. Yes, I have gone through shitty things in life, so empathy is no problem. I “get” a lot of this: the anger, the fear, the burning desire to tell the world to fuck off, and so on. Any human who has been stomped on can know these feelings.

But I can never know that lived experience because I am an old white guy living in a different kind of skin, one that gets automatic respect and privilege because, well, I’m a white male. A straight white male. Poor? Yes, but since I am a straight white male, my “poor” is a whole lot better than that of women, of people of color, etc. For example —

I do not stand a one-in-three chance of sexual assault.

I’m probably never going to be stopped by the cops for the crime of being white.

I will be taken at face value where women and people of color will not.

So, me? Talk about Béyonce? Like I said, I’m not stupid. I just wanted to get your attention. I’m not a fan of her music, but that’s about the music. I don’t care for much pop music these days (cf: “old” guy). I don’t care for hip-hop and its many commercial variants. I grew in the 60s; I like melody more than pounding rhythms and thundering bass. I can enjoy these...

Why Wapato may be a bad idea

Setting up a homeless refuge at the Wapato Jail is a tempting but problematic idea. The key phrase to bear in mind is: “Out of sight, out of mind.”

Check the map; I’m guessing most people aren’t aware just how far from downtown Wapato is: Eleven miles by car. By TriMet, over an hour-and-a-half (the 1:13 trip includes the last 1.3 miles on foot). This is a facility that was put in a distant locale for a simple reason: they wanted to keep the criminals away from the rest of us. When you are locking people up for crimes, easy access to the jail is the opposite of what’s desired.

Access for those experiencing homelessness, on the other hand, is critical: access to employment assistance, SNAP and other benefits, child care, training, medical care, and so on. Those who do not have a place to live should not be punished further by making access to vital services and opportuities difficult. Our goals in dealing with this issue has to be more than just giving people a roof over their heads and a place to escape bad weather. If that was the only goal, Wapato might be great. But a place to spend the night is just the beginning of what the homeless need.

Unless the multitude of agencies and organizations people dealing with homelessness and related issues set up branch offices inside Wapato, we’re looking at a major transportation issue for these folks. For a single person, the hassle and time needed to get back and forth is manageable; for families, it can become a daily trauma. Getting the help needed to move out of homelessness becomes much more difficult from the far end of NoPo....

Fear-mongering fails, or 2004 once more

My friend Jj Ark sent me this reminder:

Find something that fires up the base, and people will get out and vote: Gay Marriage.

It worked. Kerry lost.

He was talking about how Karl “Turd Blossom” Rove used state-level DOMA (Defense of Marriage Act) ballot measures to drive voters to the polls in 2004 to bolster flagging support for Bush’s re-election and down-ballot Republicans. With marriage equality now the law of the land, most of us have forgotten just how recent it was that in state after state, voters were denying a basic civil right to millions of law-abiding Americans.

Including us, the fine folks of left coast Oregon.

It was only a temporary fix for the GOP, not to mention the forces of regressive social policy. The Supreme Court was always going to strike down these measures; it was just a matter of time. Most of us were, I think, shocked how quickly that time came. But “equal under the law” always gets protected by the high court, even if it takes years,or decades, too long to get there.

Jj pointed me to the Pew Center’s recent poll on political affiliation, because he sees a link between the DOMA movement (Rove’s grand scheme involved rolling out more of these measures in succeeding elections, but his boss broke the economy and opened the door to the Oval Office to Obama, and next thing you know, it’s gay marriage everywhere) and the GOP’s loss of affilation that is much greater than the Democrats’. In his view, many Americans responded to the DOMA movement by leaving the GOP.

And while I think the Iraq War and Great Recession played a large part in voters turning from the Republican...

Give them time

Yes, the Democratic nomination is done and dusted. Bernie Sanders’ only path to that nomination is via a time machine. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for President. Hell, she’s going to be our next President. The best thing for those who oppose the right wing in this country to do is accept that and move forward.

The worst thing is to tell Sanders supporters, Time to get behind Clinton.

This is not the time for those who’ve given so much to back what they see as a revolution to give up and commit to the candidate who won. This is a time to live through that loss and come to terms with it. And that’s going to take a while. As someone who gave so much to the Dean for America campaign in 2003, I understand.

Sanders supporters think they’re getting a raw deal from the DNC and top Dems; they know nothing about raw deals. The behind-the-scenes efforts to stop Dean in 2003 and 2004 make efforts to block Bernie look like speed bumps on a side street. Joe Trippi’s disastrous Iowa strategy didn’t help, but Dean’s opponents constantly fed the media stories, rumors, and whatever else they could to tear him down.

And when “the scream” happened and it was shown over 800 times in a single week on cable news, not a single Democrat stood up to say, This is wrong. This is unfair. They sat back and gloated while the most successful grassroots campaign of our time was torpedoed by establishment elites in politics and the media. It was brutal, and, when it was over, I was as angry about organized politics as I’m likely to ever be in my life.

But you know what? Time passed....

Noisy me

Politics is full of noise, and, sad to say, I’ve added my own share to that mess. That makes me sad, because I see politics as the way we – and “we” varies from issue to issue, community to community – sort out our differences. Make society work.

The alternative to politics is not peaceful anarchy; the alternative to politics is violence.

In the United States, we do it badly, but we do stick to politics to resolve our issues. In a nation of this size, with the vast differences in beliefs and opinion that make up the American people, we rarely resort to violence to resolve political differences. Rather than violence, most Americans choose a second alternative to politics: submission to whoever wants to be in charge.

These are our choices: violence, surrender, politics. The latter should be cherished, seen as a privilege, the right of free human beings living in civil society. I view politics that way. No one is imposing rule by the gun in the United States, and I’ll be damned if I let anti-democratic forces control things. I choose politics because this is the one means I have available to me to affect progressive, peaceful change.

So my failure to live up to my standards hurts. When I think how I’ve added noise and not substance, I’m humiliated. I can do better than that.

Don't worry. They'll be there.

There is significant worry among Dems that Sanders voters won’t show up for Clinton in November should she win the nomination. Calls for “Bernie or Bust” or for Sanders to run as an independent are loud right now in the heat of the primary campaign. I don’t think this should concern those of us who want to elect a Democrat as President, be it Sanders or Clinton. The voters will show up.

Enough to win, that is.

In 2008, after a primary that was far more contentious, far more divisive than this one has been, there was a “PUMA” movement: Party Unity My Ass. Clinton supporters, so hurt and angry at the process, stating they would never vote for Obama, and to hell with “bringing the party together”. How large was this movement? At the end of the 2008 primary, about 50% of her supporters.

Obviously, most of them changed their minds. In the end, most Clinton supporters did vote for the Democratic nominee. Faced with the possibility of John McCain becoming President, and Sarah Palin Vice-president, the necessity to do their civic duty overcame their anger. Plus, in Denver at the DNC convention, Hillary Clinton made a stirring endorsement of Obama and, by the time election day approached, most of her supporters stood with her and voted for the man who had defeated her in the primaries.

And guess what? The number of Sanders supporters swearing they’d never vote for Clinton is about one-third smaller than those who swore they’d never vote for Obama. How many of those “Bernie or Bust” voters will stand back in November and see the possibility of President Trump or President Cruz and do nothing? Especially when the person they admire so much, Senator Sanders, says “Get out there and vote”? Because he’s going...

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