Why Collymore & Saltzman: one theory
Yesterday’s results in several local races in which I was heavily invested turned out badly. I am puzzled by the results and disheartened. Clearly, my view on what the right vote is is not shared by the majority of those who voted yesterday. But I have learned what it takes to win a local race in this area:
Start running long before there is a campaign.
Karol Collymore began running for office before she moved to Portland. She hit town and became active in groups that proved very valuable yesterday. I didn’t think any candidate would even reach 20% yesterday, not in a primary election marked by anti-incumbent attitudes, but that did not play a part in Portland-area voting. Not only did embattled City Commissioner Dan Saltzman win re-election (more below) but Collymore took one-third of the vote’s in her County Board race. The connections she’s been building paid off for her; she is now in a run-off against Loretta Smith to replace her former boss, Jeff Cogen.
Smith shows the other way to win, the classic way: you spend money. Lots of money. Smith was near the top in fund-raising, thanks to her day job as Senator Ron Wyden’s field rep. That funding, and her status as a member of Wyden’s staff, made her sufficiently attractive to voters looking for a more experienced candidate than Collymore but someone representative of those parts of the community traditionally excluded from office. That two African-American women finished first and second is a great result; how they did it is instructive.
How did Saltzman overcome his recent problems to win re-election without facing a general runoff? Matt Davis suggested that once Saltzman had been stripped of the Portland Police Bureau, many voters were then okay with him; as someone replied to me, however, that does not explain either those who voted for him before that occurred. What does seem likely is that none of the challengers made the case for replacing Saltzman. Whoever the primary voters were, what many saw as Saltzman’s ineptitude apparently either did not matter or was out-weighed by the things they liked about him. The lack of a run-off in both this and Nick Fish’s race allows the City to move forward without the distraction of campaigns, but the lack of a creditable challenge to either incumbent is not a good thing for democracy in Portland.
But it’s more than just making a creditable case; you have to make that case to lots of different organizations. Collymore has built strong connections with the GLBTQ community, pro-choice voters, young voters, the minority community, community activists and more. Saltzman has developed strong bonds with women voters, those interested in children’s issues, and environmentalists. These connections gave them a huge advantage in this low-turn out election. Their opponents also had various connections to different communities, but none had the networks the two victors depended on.
A candidate will not “come out of nowhere” in Portland; you have to earn your place at the head of the voting queue. Ted Wheeler, four years ago, was a bit of an anomaly when he faced an incredibly unpopular incumbent for County Chair; unfortunately for Cornett, Saltzman’s unpopularity appeared to be far less than that which brought down Diane Linn. Cornett also got far too late a start in this campaign, which should also be instructive for anyone thinking of running for office in 2012: start building those community connections now. Volunteer; get named to Boards; help organize major fundraisers. These have to genuine commitments, of course; those who support Collymore and Saltzman genuinely believe in them. The breadth of their network, and the depth of support from those networks helped her overcome youth and inexperience and him to overcome a lot of negative news.
Portland is a city of relationships: personal, friendly and issue-oriented. Portlanders have to be shown that a person is a leader before they will vote for him or her. Candidates need a resume built on participation in multitude of areas around the city. No one had stronger resumes in this regard yesterday than Collymore or Saltzman. The person who wants that kind of victory in 2012 — or 2014, or later — better get busy immediately and prove to people around the city — all over the city — that they are committed to more than just a 6-month campaign. Prove your stuff over the years, or you may never win a thing.
- t.a. barnhart's blog
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